Pakistan’s population is likely to reach 39 crore by 2050

In the next 25 years, Pakistan’s population may explode to 390 million, marking an increase of 62%, of which 256 million people will be in the market looking for jobs that is more than the existing total population, reveals an official report launched on Tuesday.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal launches critical 2023-2050 projections report prepared with UNFPA support. The current 242 million residents are growing rapidly, creating urgent challenges for resources and jobs nationwide. There are three scenarios that foresee different growth paths distinctly.

Slow fertility decline pushes numbers to 390 million, marking a 62 percent jump over 27 years. The slightly improved 372 million is under the rapid decline scenario with a 54 percent increase. The success scenario for contraceptive births keeps progressing toward 383 million, a balance with natural increase.

Children under 18 rise from 118 million to 140 million increasing 18 percent gradually. The working-age population grows from 135 million to 255 million, an 89% increase. The working-age population increases from 63 to 100 million youths between 15 and 29, who urgently need the creation of a large number of jobs. The number of elderly requiring new care systems in the near future will triple, from 9 million to 23 million.

Economic development is critically short of population growth. The nation must grow by 6-8 percent per year to produce millions of jobs each year. With the current growth rate of 3.5 percent plus the IMF limits, the maximum growth is capped at 5 percent. If it is not taken decisively, the unemployed youth is in danger of causing unrest for society.

The provinces are experiencing huge growth and are putting a severe strain on the infrastructure. Punjab is adding 72 million people, taking its population to 128 million to 200 million. Sindh climbs up from 56 million to 91 million and KPK grows from 41 million to 68 million base. Balochistan has the highest growth rate with an increase from 5 to 25 million, which is 68 percent. Islamabad’s population triples to 6.5 million and puts new pressure on the city.

Minister warns uncontrolled growth threatens development severely. The NFC award ties 82 percent resources to population share discouraging provincial control efforts. Successful provinces deserve extra incentives motivating responsible policies immediately.