Pakistan’s inflation drops to 0.3% in April

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 0.3% on a year-on-year basis in April 2025, a reading below that of March 2025 when it stood at 0.7%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Friday.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation decreased by 0.8% in April compared to a 0.9% rise in March. This decline marks the lowest level since the new base year was adopted, according to market analysts. For the first 10 months of the fiscal year 2024–25 (10MFY25), average inflation stood at 4.73%, a sharp drop from 25.97% during the same period last year. The fall is mainly driven by a reduction in food and electricity prices.

Urban inflation fell to 0.5% year-on-year in April 2025, compared to 1.2% in March and 19.4% in April 2024. On a month-to-month basis, urban inflation dropped by 0.7%. Rural areas also saw relief, with inflation decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month.

Topline Securities had predicted this downward trend, estimating that inflation would fall between 0.05% to 0.5% year-on-year in April. The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) data aligns with those projections.This improvement comes ahead of the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the State Bank of Pakistan, set for Monday. The SBP had kept the policy rate unchanged at 12% in its last meeting after reducing it by 1000 basis points from its peak of 22%.

Market analysts believe the central bank is likely to maintain the current rate again, given stable inflation and ongoing global uncertainties. The government hopes the downward trend in inflation will continue, easing pressure on consumers and supporting economic recovery.